The Chinese government reported this week that growth in the fourth quarter was 6.8%. Growth in the third quarter was 9%. Growth for all of 2008 was also 9%, which is a seven year low.
The widely regarded figure of 8% growth needed to employ all the workers entering the workforce each year is also the target GDP growth for 2009. However, several economists are predicting closer to 6% for '09.
It will be very interesting to see what the news is in early February as workers begin returning to factories after the New Year holiday. Will there be more reports of high numbers of closed factories? Will there be any social unrest issues? I don't think so, but we are clearly still in the transition phase of this slowdown where weaker factories close.
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